Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but thatâs absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NECâwhere the odds are stacked against himâand then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldnât rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this â costing us tens of thousands we donât have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farageâs party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. Itâs vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
