How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.