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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.